321 Gabriels Frk

Phelps, KY 41539

$85,000B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $333/mo
• Annual: $3,990/yr
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#504 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 54% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.