321 Gabriels Frk · Phelps, KY 41539

$85,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Built 1992 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath doublewide available for immediate occupancy. This home sits on nearly 1/2 acres with a nice fenced in yard. Located in a peaceful neighborhood, don't miss your chance to own this delightful home! Call today to schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• Fenced in yard
• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1992

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#504 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 54% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $32,455
• Equity at exit: $39,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $84,642
• Equity at exit: $61,429

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41539

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-24
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath doublewide available for immediate occupancy. This home sits on nearly 1/2 acres with a nice fenced in yard. Located in a peaceful neighborhood, don't miss your chance to own this delightful home! Call today to schedule your private showing.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath doublewide available for immediate occupancy. This home sits on nearly 1/2 acres with a nice fenced in yard. Located in a peaceful neighborhood, don't miss your chance to own this delightful home! Call today to schedule your private showing.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath doublewide available for immediate occupancy. This home sits on nearly 1/2 acres with a nice fenced in yard. Located in a peaceful neighborhood, don't miss your chance to own this delightful home! Call today to schedule your private showing.

4. 2026-01-21
   listed $85,000 Active 270-char remark

   Show marketing remark (270 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath doublewide available for immediate occupancy. This home sits on nearly 1/2 acres with a nice fenced in yard. Located in a peaceful neighborhood, don't miss your chance to own this delightful home! Call today to schedule your private showing.

5. 2026-01-20
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2025-08-19
   price $109,000
7. 2025-06-05
   listed $119,000 Active
8. 2023-07-03
   soldstatus $67,000
9. 2011-03-07
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$673
• After-tax cash flow: $3,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Phelps

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #25548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,486

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 135.053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+11.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Sold (MLS) $75,000 EKAR
• 2026-04-20 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $85,000 EKAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $85,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $109,000 EKAR
• 2025-06-05 Listed $119,000 EKAR
• 2023-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $48 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.