Lot 2054 Neptune Ct

Captains Cove, VA 23356

$248,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$156
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-398/mo
• Annual: $-4,772/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $69,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Captains Cove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.