Lot 2054 Neptune Ct · Captains Cove, VA 23356

$248,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 9,750 sqft lot Garage $199/sqft · 9% below area Est $272k · 9% under $156/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ensign packs a lot into it's 1,246 sq ft layout. This one story home offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms including a primary bedroom w/ an ensuite bath & walk-in closet. The kitchen has a breakfast bar and is open to the dining area and living room. Perfect for entertaining. The outdoor living spaces included a covered front porch and a side screened porch! Full appliance package is included. Conditioned crawl space for additional storage.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fitness center
• Side screened porch

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SIDE SCREENED PORCH
• CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE
• INDOOR OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• BASKETBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Captains Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,794 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,824
• List price: $248,500
• Delta: -8.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2488 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	6mo	$245,000	$189	76
4070 Captains Corridor	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-2%)	13mo	$249,900	$205	76
2403 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,246 (0%)	12mo	$250,000	$201	76
2309 Bounty Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+1%)	12mo	$265,000	$211	67
37287 Longboat Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	7mo	$1,450	$1	65
37046 Forecastle Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+6%)	10mo	$268,000	$203	62
2175 Brigantine Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-6%)	12mo	$338,730	$288	62
2274 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+4%)	14mo	$280,000	$215	60
37352 Davey Jones Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+7%)	13mo	$270,000	$203	54
2282 Yardarm Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+5%)	17mo	$270,000	$207	51
2331 Mermaid Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,322 (+6%)	19mo	$298,000	$225	48
3288 Navigator Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+9%)	15mo	$220,000	$162	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,687
• Equity at exit: $87,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,722
• Equity at exit: $119,189

Cash invested: $69,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 135.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $297,500 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 23356

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,728/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$156
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $190,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-312	+0% $-398	+5% $-484	+10% $-569
Rent	-10% $-545	-5% $-471	+0% $-398	+5% $-324	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-334	base $-398	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,125
• Closing costs: $7,455
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3928 Captains Corridor Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,700	$1.30	62d	1	0.36mi
38040 Davey Jones Blvd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	62d	1	0.88mi
38019 Fathom Rd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	70d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Captains Cove
• HOA & community: Monthly association feeCommunity offers golf

Exterior

• Parking: Has garageOpen parkingDrivewayNo garage (listed among features)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding constructionBlock foundationComposition roofBuilt new (new construction)
• Exterior features: Tennis court(s)Screened porchPorchPrivate outdoor poolWaterfront access

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsDouble-pane windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupWasherDryer

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   listing id $248,500 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $248,500 Active 809-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $248,500 Active 809-char remark
4. 2025-11-15
   status Active
5. 2025-11-13
   historical
6. 2025-10-14
   listed $432,900 Active
7. 2025-10-14
   listed $432,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,920
• − Property taxes: −$3,728
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$7,229
• Taxable loss: −$9,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,230–$18,690 screening

This single-family home in Captain's Cove is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is located in a desirable community with amenities. Minor updates such as painting and landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kegotank Elementary F VA #924/1,108 Nat'l #20,973/41,679 Middle Arcadia Middle D VA #278/342 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Arcadia High B- VA #213/319 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Captains Cove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #14910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Captains Cove, VA
• County: Accomack · 32,072 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,738
• Household income: $98,934
• Rent vs Own: 5.5% rent · 94.5% own

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Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 191.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Captains Cove
• HOA & community: Monthly association feeCommunity offers golf

Exterior

• Parking: Has garageOpen parkingDrivewayNo garage (listed among features)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding constructionBlock foundationComposition roofBuilt new (new construction)
• Exterior features: Tennis court(s)Screened porchPorchPrivate outdoor poolWaterfront access

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsDouble-pane windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupWasherDryer

Price history

-42.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $248,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $248,500 ESAR
• 2025-11-15 Relisted — ESAR
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $432,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $432,900 ESAR