4115 Esters Rd #712

Irving, TX 75038

$125,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 783 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$473
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,391/yr
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.54%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $72k (42.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#45 in TX, #1,913 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-.
• Irving ISD (urban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #751 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnston El (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #4,005 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 798 students, 87% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 888 students, 82% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 2,586 students, 80% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 169 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.