3010 Smithfield Rd

Portsmouth, VA 23702

$409,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,324 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-700/mo
• Annual: $-8,398/yr
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $114,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Portsmouth City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #107 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Victory Elementary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 589 students, 117% FRL); Cradock Middle (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 533 students, 100% FRL); Manor High (math 48% / reading 75%, grade B-, #240 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 1,236 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 105% FRL vs 60% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 300 units permitted in Portsmouth city in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,541/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 534% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.