13811 Flagstone Dr

Houston, TX 77041

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,390/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.2% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hairgrove El (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 769 students, 88% FRL); Labay Middle (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,199 students, 70% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The satellite image suggests potential roof damage.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping.
• Major: interior walls — The walls have visible damage and the paint is peeling.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of maintenance.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — The overall condition suggests they may need attention, though specific details are not visible.