105 Horse Pond Rd Unit A

Oxoboxo River, CT 06420

$115,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 714 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Under Contract · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,022/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$406
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $452/mo
• Annual: $5,424/yr
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.84%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#131 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Salem School District (rural): math 64% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #17 of 153 in CT (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.9% in Oxoboxo River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.