2445 Alexandria Pike

Southgate, KY 41071

$115,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1925 · Other · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,813/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,501/mo
• Annual: $18,007/yr
• Cap rate: 21.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.92%
• DSCR: 3.49
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in KY, #513 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Southgate Independent (suburban): math 35% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #119 of 173 in KY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 4.1% in Southgate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,813/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.