2445 Alexandria Pike · Southgate, KY 41071

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Other public records

Built 1925 4,704 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is going to need some TLC and renovations. Close to Highways.

Key facts

• 4,704 sq ft lot
• Garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 4.1% in Southgate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in KY, #513 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Southgate Independent (suburban): math 35% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #119 of 173 in KY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,813/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.92%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $81,654
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $214,175
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41071

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$2,365	$1.67	1d	14	1.01mi
140 W 13th St Newport, KY	3.0	3.5	2505	$4,200	$1.68	11d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-09
   listed $115,000
2. 2026-04-09
   historical
3. 2000-03-31
   historical
4. 1999-09-23
   listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,700
• − Management: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $17,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,115
• After-tax cash flow: $13,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Independent
• NCES district ID: 2105460
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,230
• Composite: 40.75/100
• National rank: #7579
• State rank: #119 of 173 in KY

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, KY
• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,680
• Household income: $59,976
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.38%
• Current HPI: 244.9069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.64%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $115,000 NKMLS
• 2000-03-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 1999-09-23 Listed $120,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.