403 Main St

Paris, AR 72855

$155,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-683/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-683/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#68 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paris Elementary School (math 57% / reading 27%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 431 students, 100% FRL); Paris Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #83 of 201 statewide, top 44%, 317 students, 100% FRL); Paris High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #92 of 292 statewide, top 37%, 335 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.