15 School House Ln

Warwick, PA 17543

$285,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1993 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,499
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,791/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $80,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $286k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warwick SD (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #158 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John R Bonfield El Sch (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D-, #809 of 1,518 statewide, top 54%, 476 students, 45% FRL); Warwick Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 578 students, 35% FRL); Warwick Shs (math 86% / reading 50%, grade B, #59 of 437 statewide, top 14%, 1,230 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 20% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $286k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.