15 School House Ln · Warwick, PA 17543

$285,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1993 0.32 ac lot $212/sqft · 14% above area Est $340k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One owner, well-cared-for home, large lot, nice landscaping, daylight basement, quiet cul-de-sac. Home Warranty included. Water softener and wall-mounted air conditioner included in sale.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 1993
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with three driveway spaces; Off-street parking (total of 3 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available
• Home design: Semi-detached home; Estimated year built; major remodel/renovation in 2025; Building winterized
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; Has one wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warwick SD (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #158 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John R Bonfield El Sch (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D-, #809 of 1,518 statewide, top 54%, 476 students, 45% FRL); Warwick Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 578 students, 35% FRL); Warwick Shs (math 86% / reading 50%, grade B, #59 of 437 statewide, top 14%, 1,230 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 20% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $286k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,459 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,524
• List price: $285,900
• Delta: -15.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Edgewood Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+0%)	21mo	$345,000	$254	74
23 Wade Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,406 (+4%)	6mo	$305,000	$217	74
15 Sunrise Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-9%)	9mo	$325,000	$264	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,851
• Equity at exit: $42,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-60,948
• Equity at exit: $24,719

Cash invested: $80,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17543

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,499
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,269/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,393

Max offer price $259,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-68	+0% $-149	+5% $-230	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-236	+0% $-149	+5% $-62	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-76	base $-149	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,475
• Closing costs: $8,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1348-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $285,900 Active 1348-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   price $285,900 1348-char remark
4. 2026-05-07
   price $284,900 1348-char remark
5. 2026-05-07
   historical $285,900 1348-char remark
6. 2009-04-28
   soldstatus $150,000
7. 2009-04-24
   soldstatus $150,000 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   One owner, well-cared-for home, large lot, nice landscaping, daylight basement, quiet cul-de-sac. Home Warranty included. Water softener and wall-mounted air conditioner included in sale.

8. 2009-02-25
   historical 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   One owner, well-cared-for home, large lot, nice landscaping, daylight basement, quiet cul-de-sac. Home Warranty included. Water softener and wall-mounted air conditioner included in sale.

9. 2008-11-01
   listed $154,900 187-char remark

   Show marketing remark (187 chars)

   One owner, well-cared-for home, large lot, nice landscaping, daylight basement, quiet cul-de-sac. Home Warranty included. Water softener and wall-mounted air conditioner included in sale.

10. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus $83,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,269 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,893 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,015
• − Property taxes: −$3,269
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$8,317
• Taxable loss: −$6,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick SD
• NCES district ID: 4224960
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $63,696
• Composite: 44.03/100
• National rank: #2884
• State rank: #158 of 539 in PA

Livability — Warwick

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rothsville, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,912
• Household income: $97,435
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1164.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.22%
• Current HPI: 265.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+243.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $285,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $285,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $284,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $285,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2009-04-24 Sold (MLS) $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-11-01 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,269 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.