443 Overlook Dr

Waterville, OH 43566

$195,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,729/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-738/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-738/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $173k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#185 in OH, #2,867 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Anthony Wayne Local (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 656 in OH (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterville Primary School (math 85% / reading 83%, grade A+, #90 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 517 students, 10% FRL); Fallen Timbers Middle School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A+, #29 of 654 statewide, top 5%, 647 students, 11% FRL); Anthony Wayne High School (math 56% / reading 79%, grade B, #136 of 781 statewide, top 17%, 1,324 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Waterville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.