443 Overlook Dr · Waterville, OH 43566

$195,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot Est $318k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Waterville, this inviting home offers comfort and a spacious setting to enjoy. Situated on a beautiful pie-shaped -acre lot, the oversized yard provides room to unwind, entertain, and enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find thoughtful updates including a new stove, new dishwasher, newer hot water tank, and refreshed bathroom features with newer sink and shower head. Major improvements include freshly resealed driveway, and two sump pumps—one brand new. The large 2.5-car garage adds extra convenience for storage and everyday living. A wonderful opportunity to make this home your own, being sold as-is for the seller's convenience.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; On-street parking; About 5 total parking spaces; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (200+ amp service); Natural gas connected; Public water; Sanitary sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Two stories; No attached units; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Located on a cul-de-sac; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-738/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Waterville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#185 in OH, #2,867 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Anthony Wayne Local (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 656 in OH (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterville Primary School (math 85% / reading 83%, grade A+, #90 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 517 students, 10% FRL); Fallen Timbers Middle School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A+, #29 of 654 statewide, top 5%, 647 students, 11% FRL); Anthony Wayne High School (math 56% / reading 79%, grade B, #136 of 781 statewide, top 17%, 1,324 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $172,853 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,952
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 S 5th St	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (+2%)	6mo	$301,000	$171	54
1412 Riverwalk Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-2%)	20mo	$355,000	$210	46
42 S 6th St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,763 (+2%)	21mo	$259,000	$147	43
123 South St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,794 (+4%)	22mo	$330,000	$184	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-35,443
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-35,605
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43566

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,879/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,806

Max offer price $184,130

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-6	+0% $-62	+5% $-117	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-130	+0% $-62	+5% $7	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-12	base $-62	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $195,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    historical $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,879 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,879 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,879
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$966
• After-tax cash flow: $228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anthony Wayne Local
• NCES district ID: 3904820
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $77,345
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #311
• State rank: #49 of 656 in OH

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #2867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterville, OH
• County: Lucas · 437,818 people
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 8,350
• Household income: $108,497
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.6

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.89%
• Current HPI: 214.264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $210,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,879 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.