8804 Ward St

Birch Tree, MO 65438

$15,000C-

1 bd · None ba · 784 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $544/mo
• Annual: $6,532/yr
• Cap rate: 49.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.53%
• DSCR: 7.92
• 1% rule: 5.45%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($818 rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $769 of equity ($104 loan paydown + $665 appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#658 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP.
• Shannon County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.