8804 Ward St · Birch Tree, MO 65438

$15,000

1 bd · None ba · 784 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1930 0.42 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful property offering a fantastic opportunity for someone ready to refresh and renovate. With a solid concrete pad already in place and a location close to town, this property is ideal for a new beginning or investment project.

Key facts

• Solid concrete pad
• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• SOLID CONCRETE PAD
• LOCATION CLOSE TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($818 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#658 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $769 of equity ($104 loan paydown + $665 appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Shannon County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.53%
• DSCR: 7.92
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.97×
• Total profit: $37,660
• Equity at exit: $7,990

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.03×
• Total profit: $84,137
• Equity at exit: $13,385

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65438

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $205/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $129

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $15,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $15,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $15,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $15,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-04-01
   price $15,000 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Beautiful property offering a fantastic opportunity for someone ready to refresh and renovate. With a solid concrete pad already in place and a location close to town, this property is ideal for a new beginning or investment project.

7. 2026-02-27
   listed $20,000 Active
8. 2026-02-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Beautiful property offering a fantastic opportunity for someone ready to refresh and renovate. With a solid concrete pad already in place and a location close to town, this property is ideal for a new beginning or investment project.

9. 2026-02-26
   listed $20,000 Active 233-char remark

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Beautiful property offering a fantastic opportunity for someone ready to refresh and renovate. With a solid concrete pad already in place and a location close to town, this property is ideal for a new beginning or investment project.

10. 2023-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$205
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$785
• − Management: −$785
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $6,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $4,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III
• NCES district ID: 2921540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,871
• Composite: 33.31/100
• National rank: #5505
• State rank: #158 of 324 in MO

Livability — Birch Tree

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #22068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Tree, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,616

Population outlook (Shannon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,703 people
• By 2030: 7,355 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 6,637 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 5,898 · -23.4%
• By 2075: 4,407 · -42.8%
• By 2100: 3,037 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Shannon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -56.9pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Current HPI: 172.7103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $15,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-27 Listed $20,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-26 Coming Soon — SOMO
• 2026-02-26 Listed $20,000 SOMO
• 2023-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $205 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.