10386 Elk Creek Pkwy

Independence, VA 24326

$44,900B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $626/mo
• Annual: $7,517/yr
• Cap rate: 24.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.13%
• DSCR: 3.94
• 1% rule: 2.71%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#320 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #27 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 277 students, 89% FRL); Independence Middle (math 60% / reading 73%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 262 students, 88% FRL); Grayson County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 465 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 1.8% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.