10386 Elk Creek Pkwy · Independence, VA 24326

$44,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1940 0.33 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional Opportunity on a Generous . 33 Acre Lot! This 2 Level Home Offers Tremendous Potential for Investors, Builders, or Buyers Looking for their Next Project. Whether You Choose a Full Renovation or a Complete Teardown, the Property Provides a Fantastic Canvas to Create Something Special. Situated on a Spacious Lot with Room to Expand, Rebuild, or Reimagine, The Possibilities are Endless. Conveniently Located and Priced to Reflect its Condition, this is a Rare Chance to Unlock the Value and Potential of a Desirable Homesite. Property is Being Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Generous acre lot
• Spacious lot
• Desirable homesite

Tags

• GENEROUS ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• DESIRABLE HOMESITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.33 acres (100 x 145); Zoning: RES

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Two stories; Residential single-family home
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 1.8% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#320 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #27 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 277 students, 89% FRL); Independence Middle (math 60% / reading 73%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 262 students, 88% FRL); Grayson County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 465 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.13%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $45,340
• Equity at exit: $20,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.40×
• Total profit: $105,543
• Equity at exit: $31,122

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24326

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $151/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $422

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $44,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 567-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $49,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $151 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 143.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$151
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $5,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101690
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,429
• Composite: 59.22/100
• National rank: #942
• State rank: #27 of 131 in VA

Livability — Independence

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #11693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 642

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,252 people
• By 2030: 13,634 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 12,202 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 10,811 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 8,069 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 5,647 · -60.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 18.6% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+57.7 2012: R+37.9 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Current HPI: 187.5487
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $49,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $151 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.