3801 Crown Point Rd #1294

Jacksonville, FL 32257

$127,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$569
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-803/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-803/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (9.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crown Point Elementary School (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 767 students, 50% FRL); Mandarin Middle School (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,173 students, 33% FRL); Samuel W. Wolfson High School (math 48% / reading 70%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 922 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $127k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.