3801 Crown Point Rd #1294 · Jacksonville, FL 32257

$127,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1984 $569/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Central Mandarin location! 6 months of seller paid HOA fees with full offer! Freshly painted throughout corner unit featuring tile flooring, a wood-burning fireplace, blinds, and ceiling fans throughout. Sliding glass doors open to a private screened-in patio with an additional storage area. The kitchen offers a breakfast bar, smooth-top stove, and a dedicated eating area, along with a convenient laundry closet with washer and dryer. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, linen closet, and en-suite shower. Assigned parking space included. Enjoy community amenities such as a pool and tennis courts. Unit next door is also available (#1292). Buy both for a bundle deal!

Key facts

• $569 HOA
• Built 1984
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with a monthly fee of $569; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking in a parking lot
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level; Entry on level 1; Faces south; Attached property
• Construction: Stories: 1
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Tennis court(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-803/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (9.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crown Point Elementary School (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 767 students, 50% FRL); Mandarin Middle School (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,173 students, 33% FRL); Samuel W. Wolfson High School (math 48% / reading 70%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 922 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $127k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,176 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-29,170
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,558
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32257

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $288/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$569
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $115,176

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-31	+0% $-67	+5% $-103	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-129	+0% $-67	+5% $-5	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-35	base $-67	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3801 Crown Point Rd #1032 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	21d	1	0.17mi
3801 Crown Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0–2.5	1026	$1,450	$1.41	25d	2	0.18mi
9740 Summer Grove Way W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,650	$1.53	19d	1	0.29mi
3918 Via Di Olivia Ct #33 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,800	$1.42	25d	1	0.30mi
10101 Arrowhead Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,829	$1.77	4d	12	0.46mi
10109 Old Saint Augustine Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1135	$1,382	$1.22	9d	3	0.49mi
4112 Hanging Moss Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,725	$1.53	5d	1	0.67mi
3824 Tree Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1244	$2,165	$1.74	9d	1	0.67mi
4108 Hanging Moss Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,800	$1.64	19d	1	0.68mi
10275 Old Saint Augustine Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,543	$1.51	3d	25	0.71mi
3695 Deer Crossing Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,230	$1.69	4d	1	0.72mi
4137 Rollingwood Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1281	$1,915	$1.49	5d	1	0.76mi
4083 Sunbeam Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,344	$1.35	4d	28	0.89mi
4320 Sunbeam Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,185	$1.17	6d	1	0.91mi
4240 Migration Dr Unit 9-7 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,650	$1.53	25d	1	0.93mi
10263 Whispering Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,104	$2.40	23d	10	0.95mi
10263 Whispering Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,088	$2.26	3d	1	0.95mi
9626 Belda Way #16 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,450	$1.25	9d	1	1.00mi
9670 Amarante Cir #3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,399	$1.49	25d	1	1.03mi
9505 Armelle Way #15 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,425	$1.23	25d	1	1.09mi
3200 Hartley Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,314	$1.39	25d	5	1.22mi
4215 Windergate Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,550	$1.21	25d	1	1.35mi
4324 Queensway Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,989	$1.65	4d	1	1.37mi
3355 Claire Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,719	$1.69	4d	13	1.48mi
4403 Windergate Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,395	$1.03	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $569 · $6,828/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $127,000 Active
3. 1991-07-01
   soldstatus $32,000
4. 1990-10-30
   soldstatus $2,057,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 266.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$288
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − HOA: −$6,828
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$2,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $-161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,904
• Household income: $75,780
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2293.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.97%
• Current HPI: 310.465
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.02%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $127,000 realMLS
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,057,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.