152 Duncans Mill Dr

Locust Grove, GA 30248

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-127/mo
• Annual: $-1,527/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Unity Grove Elementary School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #612 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 838 students, 53% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 1,103 students, 51% FRL); Locust Grove High (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 1,637 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.