152 Duncans Mill Dr · Locust Grove, GA 30248

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $286k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

Key facts

• Built 1998
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Unity Grove Elementary School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #612 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 838 students, 53% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 1,103 students, 51% FRL); Locust Grove High (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 1,637 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $250k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,119 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,564
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Kimbell Farm Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,347 (0%)	8mo	$290,000	$215	59
1260 Coan Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+5%)	10mo	$259,000	$183	58
2028 Big Cypress Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+14%)	0mo	$255,000	$167	57
1680 Leguin Mill Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+7%)	2mo	$305,000	$212	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,294
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-61,061
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,471/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $227,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-57	+0% $-127	+5% $-198	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-210	+0% $-127	+5% $-44	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-64	base $-127	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
142 Kimbell Farm Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,900	$1.28	7d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $249,900 Active
16. 2014-11-13
    price $60,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

17. 2014-09-18
    price $105,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Check out the park like setting that you get to enjoy in the immaculate ranch on basement-Hardwood floors, stacked stone fireplace and soaring ceilings greet you as you step into the Great Room-Open Kitchen with lots of cabinets-Dining Room looks out over wooded back yard-Laundry Room conveniently located off the Kitchen-Master with trey ceilings-Master Bath with garden tub that offers killer view of nature-Spacious secondary Bedrooms- Guest Bath with tile floors & new vanity-BRAND NEW carpet in all Bedrooms-Basement is partially drywall waiting to be finished. Home is located in quite Duncan's Mill Subdivision-convenient to interstate, schools, shopping and dining-Call today! No down payment thru USDA financing!!!

18. 2014-02-21
    soldstatus $105,000
19. 2014-02-18
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Check out the park like setting that you get to enjoy in the immaculate ranch on basement-Hardwood floors, stacked stone fireplace and soaring ceilings greet you as you step into the Great Room-Open Kitchen with lots of cabinets-Dining Room looks out over wooded back yard-Laundry Room conveniently located off the Kitchen-Master with trey ceilings-Master Bath with garden tub that offers killer view of nature-Spacious secondary Bedrooms- Guest Bath with tile floors & new vanity-BRAND NEW carpet in all Bedrooms-Basement is partially drywall waiting to be finished. Home is located in quite Duncan's Mill Subdivision-convenient to interstate, schools, shopping and dining-Call today! No down payment thru USDA financing!!!

20. 2014-02-04
    status Under Contract 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Check out the park like setting that you get to enjoy in the immaculate ranch on basement-Hardwood floors, stacked stone fireplace and soaring ceilings greet you as you step into the Great Room-Open Kitchen with lots of cabinets-Dining Room looks out over wooded back yard-Laundry Room conveniently located off the Kitchen-Master with trey ceilings-Master Bath with garden tub that offers killer view of nature-Spacious secondary Bedrooms- Guest Bath with tile floors & new vanity-BRAND NEW carpet in all Bedrooms-Basement is partially drywall waiting to be finished. Home is located in quite Duncan's Mill Subdivision-convenient to interstate, schools, shopping and dining-Call today! No down payment thru USDA financing!!!

21. 2014-02-04
    price $114,999 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Check out the park like setting that you get to enjoy in the immaculate ranch on basement-Hardwood floors, stacked stone fireplace and soaring ceilings greet you as you step into the Great Room-Open Kitchen with lots of cabinets-Dining Room looks out over wooded back yard-Laundry Room conveniently located off the Kitchen-Master with trey ceilings-Master Bath with garden tub that offers killer view of nature-Spacious secondary Bedrooms- Guest Bath with tile floors & new vanity-BRAND NEW carpet in all Bedrooms-Basement is partially drywall waiting to be finished. Home is located in quite Duncan's Mill Subdivision-convenient to interstate, schools, shopping and dining-Call today! No down payment thru USDA financing!!!

22. 2014-02-01
    listed $114,999 New 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Check out the park like setting that you get to enjoy in the immaculate ranch on basement-Hardwood floors, stacked stone fireplace and soaring ceilings greet you as you step into the Great Room-Open Kitchen with lots of cabinets-Dining Room looks out over wooded back yard-Laundry Room conveniently located off the Kitchen-Master with trey ceilings-Master Bath with garden tub that offers killer view of nature-Spacious secondary Bedrooms- Guest Bath with tile floors & new vanity-BRAND NEW carpet in all Bedrooms-Basement is partially drywall waiting to be finished. Home is located in quite Duncan's Mill Subdivision-convenient to interstate, schools, shopping and dining-Call today! No down payment thru USDA financing!!!

23. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2012-04-26
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

25. 2012-04-13
    historical 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

26. 2012-04-13
    price $69,900 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

27. 2012-03-15
    historical Pending Approval 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

28. 2012-03-01
    historical 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

29. 2012-01-11
    historical Pending Approval 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

30. 2011-12-31
    price $69,900 Reduced 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

31. 2011-12-08
    listed $79,900 New 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    WELCOME HOME TO THIS COZY RANCH ON BASEMENT W/ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH-NESTLED ON ACRE LOT W/LOADS OF TREES & CREEK-VAULTED GREAT RM W/FPLC-HARDWOOD FLRS-OPEN KITCHEN

32. 1995-05-12
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,471 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,471 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,471
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,394
• After-tax cash flow: $-133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+706.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $249,900 FSBO.com
• 2014-11-13 Price Changed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2014-09-18 Price Changed $105,000 GAMLS
• 2014-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-18 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GAMLS
• 2014-02-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-02-04 Price Changed $114,999 GAMLS
• 2014-02-01 Listed $114,999 GAMLS
• 2012-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-26 Sold (MLS) $60,000 GAMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-04-13 Price Changed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2012-03-15 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2012-03-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-01-11 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2011-12-31 Price Changed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2011-12-08 Listed $79,900 GAMLS
• 1995-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,471 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.