3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,568 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,081/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$483
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$437
Net cashflow
$-360/mo
Annual
$-4,317/yr
Cap rate
4.80%
Cash-on-cash
-5.32%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (21.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (28.2% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $208k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#50 in MN, #1,308 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $230k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Brooklyn Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RGZ4R5437KA0GN
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29