11208 Treasure Swale Way

Quail Ridge, FL 34638

$264,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $51/mo
• Annual: $610/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $74,197

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($610/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#715 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Quail Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.