11208 Treasure Swale Way · Quail Ridge, FL 34638

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,673 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 $180/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 11208 TREASURE SWALE WAY LAND O LAKES FL 34638 priced at 286990, the square foot and stories are 1673, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 1 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Trail network
• Regional park
• Lagoon

Tags

• COMMUNITY FARM
• REGIONAL PARK
• TRAIL NETWORK
• TOWN CENTER
• LAGOON
• STEM SCHOOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Total living area and building area reported by builder (living area 1,673 / building area 2,142); Total annual association fees $2,160
• Financial info: CDD applicable; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Breeze Home (monthly fee $180); Association amenities: Park, Playground, Pool; Association fee covers grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-11-30); Faces northwest; New construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton; Builder model: Ballantyne; Builder license: CBC039052; Permit number: 2023-006473; Building area listed by builder
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Home comes with a builder-provided living area measurement
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($610/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Quail Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#715 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $224,705 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-46,319
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-61,743
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $531/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $264,990

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	24d	1	0.02mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.06mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	4d	1	0.09mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	23d	1	0.09mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	0.10mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	24d	1	0.13mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	14d	1	0.13mi
11450 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	17d	1	0.25mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.29mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	20d	1	0.34mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,350	$1.32	24d	1	0.36mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	24d	1	0.36mi
17425 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,900	$1.14	24d	1	0.48mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	24d	1	0.61mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	24d	1	0.76mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	24d	1	0.81mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	24d	1	0.82mi
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.85mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	14d	1	0.97mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	17d	1	1.15mi
17761 Pleasantview Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,600	$1.39	20d	1	1.15mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,395	$1.18	14d	1	1.17mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	24d	1	1.32mi
18772 Grand Live Oak BLVD HOWEY IN HLS, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1076	$2,682	$2.49	1d	174	1.37mi
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,050	$1.34	12d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-04-04
    listed $286,990 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    The property is located at 11208 TREASURE SWALE WAY LAND O LAKES FL 34638 priced at 286990, the square foot and stories are 1673, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 1 garages. For more details please, call or email.

15. 2026-03-24
    listed $286,990 Active
16. 2026-02-16
    soldstatus $1,251,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $531 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,668/yr (+$139/mo · 313.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$531
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $1,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Quail Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #15264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-77.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $286,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Listed $286,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,251,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+68.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $531 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.