640 3rd Ave

Manilla, IA 51454

$122,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1896 · SingleFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-182/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $34,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($847 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#680 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Irwin Elementary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 230 students, 39% FRL); Ikm-Manning Middle School (math 78% / reading 80%, grade A+, #42 of 246 statewide, top 17%, 284 students, 35% FRL); Ikm-Manning High School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade B+, #89 of 336 statewide, top 30%, 196 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $122k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.