640 3rd Ave · Manilla, IA 51454

$122,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1896 7,100 sqft lot Est $97k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

The perfect starter home awaits you! This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is move in ready! Walk into this home and take in the entryway/mud room area, and head into the living room open to the kitchen making it perfect for entertaining. Move through the home into the full bathroom, 2 bedrooms on the main floor and laundry. Make your way upstairs to the additional 2 bedrooms and second full bathroom. This home is ready for its new owner and would make a great starter home or investment property. Call today for a personal tour!

Key facts

• 7,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1896
• Listed 112 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#680 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($847 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $122k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,692 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,624
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 3rd Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,317 (-10%)	9mo	$87,000	$66	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $39,743
• Equity at exit: $82,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $116,386
• Equity at exit: $155,261

Cash invested: $34,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51454

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $648/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $119,819

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $19	+0% $-15	+5% $-50	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-52	+0% $-15	+5% $21	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $16	base $-15	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,625
• Closing costs: $3,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $122,500
3. 2025-12-14
   listed $124,500 Active
4. 2012-11-08
   soldstatus $37,000
5. 2007-05-16
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $648 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 98.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,862
• − Property taxes: −$648
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$890
• − Management: −$890
• − Depreciation: −$3,564
• Taxable loss: −$2,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$562
• After-tax cash flow: $380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ikm-Manning Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914880
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,285
• Composite: 64.68/100
• National rank: #524
• State rank: #58 of 289 in IA

Livability — Manilla

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #15748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manilla, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,399

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,186 people
• By 2030: 17,322 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 17,948 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 18,955 · +10.3%
• By 2075: 22,130 · +28.8%
• By 2100: 25,483 · +48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.8% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Current HPI: 199.6247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+308.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — IAR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $122,500 IAR
• 2025-12-14 Listed $124,500 IAR
• 2012-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $648 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.