8221 Ilex #55

Fontana, CA 92335

$269,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $1,150/mo
• Annual: $13,802/yr
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.32%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fontana Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #156 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,458/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 3437% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.