3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,300 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,207/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$251
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$253
Net cashflow
$-215/mo
Annual
$-2,584/yr
Cap rate
4.82%
Cash-on-cash
-5.28%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (21.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (31.0% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Reese Public Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #164 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RHTQ4C4TAXHVFT
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29