440 Division Ave

Drain, OR 97435

$50,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $479/yr
• Cap rate: 17.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.98%
• DSCR: 2.78
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($479/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#106 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• North Douglas SD 22 (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #43 of 183 in OR (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Douglas Elementary School (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #167 of 412 statewide, top 41%, 223 students, 76% FRL); North Douglas High School (math 30% / reading 90%, grade C+, #21 of 143 statewide, top 15%, 123 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $50k implies a 567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.