440 Division Ave · Drain, OR 97435

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1988 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor alert!! Fixer 1988 single-wide on flat lot. Home is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 924 square feet. Fix up the home or replace with new double-wide or stick home!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.11 acres (level)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community; No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric hot water and fuel; Public water; Public sewer; Cable and fiber optics internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home on real property; Residential property; Fixer condition; Main living area on a single level; No view
• Construction: Built in 1988; Metal roof; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Dining room; Family room; Great room; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($479/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#106 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• North Douglas SD 22 (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #43 of 183 in OR (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Douglas Elementary School (math 27% / reading 54%, grade F, #167 of 412 statewide, top 41%, 223 students, 76% FRL); North Douglas High School (math 30% / reading 90%, grade C+, #21 of 143 statewide, top 15%, 123 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $50k implies a 567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.98%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,948
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 Elder St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+9%)	2mo	$295,000	$293	75
317 S Cedar St	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+10%)	9mo	$220,000	$216	64
420 W D Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-3%)	16mo	$239,000	$266	60
535 Elder St	0.16mi	3/1.0	840 (-9%)	16mo	$240,000	$286	60
504 Silver Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	856 (-7%)	4mo	$234,100	$273	58
556 Payton Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+13%)	14mo	$253,000	$243	53
303 Kent St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	956 (+4%)	13mo	$264,800	$277	51
401 Lane Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+14%)	23mo	$325,000	$308	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-5,304
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-297
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97435

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $392/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
189 E C Ave Drain, OR	3.0	2.0	1092	$990	$0.91	13d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $50,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   status $60,000 Pending 28 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-05-03
   listed $60,000 Active 161-char remark
8. 2001-04-06
   soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $392 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$392
• − Insurance: −$5,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable loss: −$36
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Douglas SD 22
• NCES district ID: 4104350
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,306
• Composite: 44.05/100
• National rank: #6253
• State rank: #43 of 183 in OR

Livability — Drain

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #5935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drain, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,383

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 330.8867
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $50,000 RMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $60,000 RMLS
• 2001-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $392 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.