151 Pebble Creek Dr

Fairdealing, MO 63945

$97,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,056/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $247/mo
• Annual: $2,959/yr
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.90%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#464 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Neelyville R-IV (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #33 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Neelyville Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 214 students, 64% FRL); Neelyville High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 271 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.