151 Pebble Creek Dr · Fairdealing, MO 63945

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 362 Days on market

Built 2004 1.00 ac lot Est $97k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot in a peaceful country setting. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort and tranquility, with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Recent updates include a brand-new roof, providing peace of mind for years to come. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting layout designed for easy living. Whether you’re looking for a place to relax or entertain, this home provides the space and setting to make it your own.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• New roof
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (residential, attached); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, electric range, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#464 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Neelyville R-IV (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #33 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Neelyville Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 214 students, 64% FRL); Neelyville High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 271 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.90%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Pebble Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	0mo	$97,000	$75	100
175 Pebble Creek Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	8mo	$97,000	$75	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $39,931
• Equity at exit: $56,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $106,229
• Equity at exit: $100,077

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63945

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $97,000 Pending 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 359 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 355 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 353 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $97,000 Active Under Contract 352 DOM
10. 2026-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-10-06
    price $97,000
12. 2025-06-13
    listed $99,500 Active
13. 2006-06-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$481/yr (+$40/mo · 104.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $1,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $2,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neelyville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2921750
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,597
• Composite: 43.44/100
• National rank: #3009
• State rank: #33 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fairdealing

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #18556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,278

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.34%
• Current HPI: 132.2069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $97,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $99,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.