17761 Saint Johns Church Rd

Laurel Hill, NC 28351

$129,500D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-364/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-364/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $626 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#256 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Hill Elementary (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 662 students, 100% FRL); Carver Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 659 students, 100% FRL); Scotland High School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,445 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 72% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $130k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.