17761 Saint Johns Church Rd · Laurel Hill, NC 28351

$129,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1955 0.30 ac lot Est $119k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type zoned RA
• Financial info: No investor or rental income details provided
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Has a carport (1 space); Unpaved parking
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding/frame construction; Metal roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Front porch; Has a view; No additional exterior features listed; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-364/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#256 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Hill Elementary (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 662 students, 100% FRL); Carver Middle (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 659 students, 100% FRL); Scotland High School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,445 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 72% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $626 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $130k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,800 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,872
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14941 Church St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,098 (+8%)	8mo	$128,000	$117	53
17280 Shannon Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	23mo	$150,000	$139	49
17081 Lauder St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (+11%)	8mo	$113,500	$101	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,813
• Equity at exit: $40,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $15,227
• Equity at exit: $51,600

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28351

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $124,136

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $6	+0% $-30	+5% $-67	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-67	+0% $-30	+5% $7	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $3	base $-30	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,500 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,500 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,500 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,500 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,500 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,500 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $129,500 Active
19. 2023-05-01
    soldstatus $44,000 Closed 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

20. 2023-04-13
    status Pending 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

21. 2023-03-30
    price $48,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

22. 2023-02-22
    status Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

23. 2023-02-17
    status Pending 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

24. 2023-02-14
    price $52,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

25. 2022-12-30
    price $58,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

26. 2022-11-18
    listed $63,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This is a great investment property or a starter home. This charming 2 bedroom home offers a large bathroom in the quiet community of Laurel Hill. Check out this home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 131.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$900
• − Management: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$2,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,203
• Composite: 20.66/100
• National rank: #8536
• State rank: #160 of 178 in NC

Livability — Laurel Hill

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #11216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,792

Population outlook (Scotland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,331 people
• By 2030: 32,017 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 29,290 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 26,554 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 19,857 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 13,851 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 16% Native American 11% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.9) · D 46.2% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -6.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.9 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+7.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 189.4535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+105.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $129,500 Hive MLS
• 2023-05-01 Sold (MLS) $44,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-04-13 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-03-30 Price Changed $48,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-02-22 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2023-02-17 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $52,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-30 Price Changed $58,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-11-18 Listed $63,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.