1740 Kenyon Rd

Ontario, NY 14519

$194,500C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-246/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $54,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $191k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Wayne Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #194 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wayne Central Primary School (439 students, 38% FRL); Wayne Central Middle School (math 42% / reading 59%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 625 students, 39% FRL); Wayne Senior High School (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 670 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.