1740 Kenyon Rd · Ontario, NY 14519

$194,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1985 0.94 ac lot Est $313k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Buyer's agent to be present at all showings. Delayed negotiations to March 31st at 6pm. All offers to the listing agent by 4pm please. Offers to be accompanied by buyer proof of funds or Lender pre-approval letter. Please remove shoes or put on booties when entering the home. No home inspection without consent of the seller. Roof New 2023, One owner home, Owner build, No basement. 4 Mini/split Mitsubishi heating and cooling units throughout the house (approx. 8 years old). Super well insulated walls and ceiling, Anderson Windows 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, large Livingroom and family room or possible in home office space. Family room area has photography equipment in compartments in ceiling. Pul

Key facts

• Roof new 2023
• Anderson windows
• Heated garage

Tags

• ROOF NEW 2023
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• HEATED GARAGE
• DETACHED BARN WITH ELECTRIC
• BLACK TOP DRIVEWAY
• TREED COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (1.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Wayne Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #194 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wayne Central Primary School (439 students, 38% FRL); Wayne Central Middle School (math 42% / reading 59%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 625 students, 39% FRL); Wayne Senior High School (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 670 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $190,878 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,832
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1740 Kenyon Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,664 (0%)	0mo	$285,000	$171	100
1984 Woodgate Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,660 (-0%)	17mo	$325,000	$196	53
6603 Knickerbocker Rd	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,750 (+5%)	6mo	$480,000	$274	52
2039 Brookway Cres	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,832 (+10%)	1mo	$345,000	$188	45
6639 Ontario Center Rd	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,912 (+15%)	12mo	$350,000	$183	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,640
• Equity at exit: $29,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,359
• Equity at exit: $16,817

Cash invested: $54,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14519

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax from tax record: −$493 /mo · $5,914/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $190,878

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $35	+0% $-21	+5% $-76	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-99	+0% $-21	+5% $58	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $29	base $-21	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,625
• Closing costs: $5,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6217 Blossom Ridge Cir Ontario, NY	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,995	$1.59	25d	1	0.93mi
1649 Ridge Rd Unit 1649 B Ontario, NY	2.0	1.0	1750	$1,550	$0.89	45d	1	0.93mi
6186 Jackrabbit TRL Ontario, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1478	$2,550	$1.73	25d	1	0.95mi
1582 Ridge Rd Ontario, NY	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	0.97mi
6190 Stokely Creek Trl Ontario, NY	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,150	$1.44	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $194,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,914 · $493/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,914 · $493/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,895
• − Property taxes: −$5,914
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,658
• Taxable loss: −$3,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630330
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,193
• Composite: 54.18/100
• National rank: #1378
• State rank: #194 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ontario

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,487

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.53%
• Current HPI: 242.3518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $194,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,914 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.