CAVCO 16 Southern Terrace Plan

Columbiana, OH 44408

$139,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,734/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $278/mo
• Annual: $3,338/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#427 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crestview Local (rural): math 53% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #265 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Columbiana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbiana County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.6% in Columbiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major: exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.
• Major: landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.