CAVCO 16 Southern Terrace Plan · Columbiana, OH 44408

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MULTI-SECTION HOME IN A 55+ COMMUNITY

Key facts

• Listed 100 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.6% in Columbiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#427 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crestview Local (rural): math 53% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #265 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Columbiana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbiana County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,849
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $19,011
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44408

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-04-28
   price $139,900 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MULTI-SECTION HOME IN A 55+ COMMUNITY

9. 2026-02-27
   listed $141,900 Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH MULTI-SECTION HOME IN A 55+ COMMUNITY

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, HVAC system, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior painting and siding repair — A fresh coat of paint and repairs to the siding would enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality.
• Both interior painting and repairs — Fresh paint and repairs to interior walls would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would enhance the home's overall appearance and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior painting and siding repair — A fresh coat of paint and repairs to the siding would enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Both interior painting and repairs — Fresh paint and repairs to interior walls would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would enhance the home's overall appearance and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crestview Local
• NCES district ID: 3904643
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,307
• Composite: 52.38/100
• National rank: #1582
• State rank: #265 of 656 in OH

Livability — Columbiana

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #6997

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbiana, OH
• County: Columbiana · 99,532 people
• City population: 10,924
• Population (ZIP): 10,924
• Household income: $71,205
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Columbiana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,353 people
• By 2030: 94,225 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 85,169 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 76,157 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 58,451 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 42,805 · -56.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbiana

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 25.1% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.83%
• Current HPI: 227.4173
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $139,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Listed $141,900 Zillow