2 Bella Minozza

Lake Elsinore, CA 92532

$525,000C-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 298 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$866
• HOA: −$203
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-467/mo
• Annual: $-5,605/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tuscany Hills Elementary (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 644 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #78 of 498 statewide, top 15%, 955 students, 51% FRL); Temescal Canyon High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 2,176 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lake Elsinore Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 53% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Elsinore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.