2 Bella Minozza · Lake Elsinore, CA 92532

$525,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 298 Days on market

Built 1993 0.28 ac lot Est $703k · 25% under $203/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-442 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $447k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $428k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Elsinore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tuscany Hills Elementary (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 644 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake Middle (math 44% / reading 64%, grade B-, #78 of 498 statewide, top 15%, 955 students, 51% FRL); Temescal Canyon High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 2,176 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lake Elsinore Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 53% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $427,957 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $703,444
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Corte Rivera	0.18mi	5/3.0	2,735 (+1%)	7mo	$760,000	$278	84
37 Corte Madera	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,670 (-2%)	3mo	$749,900	$281	80
5 Corte Montena	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,735 (+1%)	7mo	$675,000	$247	73
71 Villa Valtelena	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,733 (+1%)	1mo	$649,900	$238	68
16 Villa Valtelena	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (-5%)	5mo	$756,500	$292	64
31707 Ridgeview Dr	0.60mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,671 (-2%)	8mo	$625,000	$234	58
21035 Canyon Ridge Dr	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,486 (-8%)	6mo	$665,000	$267	55
31648 Canyon Estate Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,671 (-2%)	7mo	$572,500	$214	53
19 Villa Milano	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (-5%)	2mo	$604,000	$233	52
2 Palmieki	0.61mi	5/3.0	2,965 (+9%)	8mo	$755,000	$255	50
29 Villa Roma	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,313 (-15%)	0mo	$600,000	$259	36
101 Via De La Valle	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,086 (+14%)	6mo	$1,225,000	$397	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.35% appreciation · 0.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $191,446
• Equity at exit: $411,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $561,012
• Equity at exit: $828,704

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92532

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$648 /mo · $7,772/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$203
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,839

Max offer price $446,971

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-293	+0% $-442	+5% $-590	+10% $-739
Rent	-10% $-780	-5% $-611	+0% $-442	+5% $-273	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-308	base $-442	+0.5pp $-578	+1.0pp $-716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Villa Roma Lake Elsinore, CA	4.0	2.5	2313	$3,690	$1.60	6d	1	0.67mi
558 Pablo Rd Lake Elsinore, CA	4.0	3.0	2004	$3,280	$1.64	46d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $203 · $2,436/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   status Active
3. 2026-02-28
   price $525,000
4. 2026-01-09
   historical Backup Offers Accepted
5. 2025-10-22
   status Active
6. 2025-10-22
   price $703,000
7. 2025-06-04
   historical Backup Offers Accepted
8. 2025-06-03
   listed $342,900 Active
9. 2023-09-26
   soldstatus $655,000 Sold 978-char remark

   Show marketing remark (978 chars)

   Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

10. 2023-09-26
    soldstatus $655,000

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

11. 2023-07-07
    status Pending 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

12. 2023-06-29
    price $625,500 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

13. 2023-06-15
    listed $675,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome to Avalon at Tuscany Hills, an exquisite executive home tucked away in the picturesque city of Lake Elsinore. This remarkable property boasts a timeless design, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, including a convenient ground-floor bedroom for added accessibility. The kitchen has been meticulously remodeled, showcasing both style and functionality, with plenty of storage. Step outside into the backyard oasis, a captivating space perfect for both entertaining and unwinding. Whether you're hosting gatherings or seeking a tranquil retreat, this outdoor haven provides the ideal setting. The primary bedroom comes complete with a retreat area for relaxation, a spacious walk-in closet, and a lavish walk-in shower. The high ceilings throughout the home create an open and airy ambiance, blending charm and comfort seamlessly. Avalon at Tuscany Hills offers not only a desirable location but also an inviting atmosphere that makes it the perfect place to call home.

14. 1993-09-15
    soldstatus $190,000
15. 1991-08-28
    soldstatus $11,813,000
16. 1991-07-19
    soldstatus $12,071,154

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,772 · $648/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,772 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥104°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$7,772
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,108
• − Management: −$4,108
• − HOA: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$14,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Elsinore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #17250

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elsinore, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 89,823
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,055
• Household income: $122,312
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Asian 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 24% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.35%
• Current HPI: 315.9846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — TheMLS
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $525,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-09 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $703,000 TheMLS
• 2025-06-04 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $342,900 TheMLS
• 2023-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $655,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-26 Sold (MLS) $655,000 SDMLS
• 2023-07-07 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $625,500 SDMLS
• 2023-06-15 Listed $675,000 SDMLS
• 1993-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $11,813,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $12,071,154 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,772 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.