3131 W Molly Ln

Phoenix, AZ 85083

$575,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,595 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-946/mo
• Annual: $-11,354/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (44.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $320k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stetson Hills School (math 69% / reading 67%, grade B+, #65 of 1,109 statewide, top 6%, 912 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $403k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.