11322 Michelle Way

Lovejoy, GA 30228

$174,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,912/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $219/mo
• Annual: $2,626/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#317 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $175k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in Lovejoy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.