11647 E Lennon Rd

Lennon, MI 48449

$142,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,508/yr
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.78%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $39,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($985 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#510 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime D-.
• Durand Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 17 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $142k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.