11647 E Lennon Rd · Lennon, MI 48449

$142,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1920 0.25 ac lot $105/sqft · 20% below area Est $177k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Extended driveway
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT WOOD CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#510 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime D-.
• Durand Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($985 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $142k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,220 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.78%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,315
• List price: $142,500
• Delta: -19.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2509 S Sheridan Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-13%)	0mo	$145,000	$122	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $85,572
• Equity at exit: $128,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $245,621
• Equity at exit: $276,846

Cash invested: $39,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48449

• Home prices YoY: 26.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $142,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,625
• Closing costs: $4,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

2. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

3. 2026-04-28
   price $142,500 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

4. 2026-04-27
   price $142,500 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

5. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-30
   historical
8. 2026-01-30
   historical
9. 2026-01-09
   listed $150,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

10. 2026-01-09
    listed $150,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

11. 2026-01-09
    listed $150,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

12. 2026-01-09
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Charming two-story home with classic character and functional layout. Covered front porch welcomes you into a spacious living area featuring a cozy fireplace and open sightlines to the dining space. Kitchen offers abundant wood cabinetry, breakfast bar seating, and included appliances. Durable flooring throughout main living areas. Upstairs provides comfortable bedroom spaces with natural light. Detached garage and extended driveway offer ample parking. Large yard with mature trees adds outdoor appeal. Convenient location close to schools, shopping, and commuter routes. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

13. 2016-03-29
    soldstatus $55,000
14. 2015-10-20
    listed $60,000
15. 2015-10-20
    listed $60,000
16. 2014-10-23
    historical
17. 2014-10-22
    historical
18. 2014-06-03
    listed $84,900
19. 2014-06-03
    listed $84,900
20. 2010-12-06
    historical
21. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2008-12-08
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2008-09-28
    historical
24. 2008-09-28
    historical
25. 2008-09-25
    listed $39,500
26. 2008-09-25
    listed $39,500
27. 2008-08-14
    historical
28. 2007-04-03
    listed $90,000
29. 2007-04-03
    listed $90,000
30. 2007-04-03
    listed $90,000
31. 2007-03-10
    historical
32. 2006-06-08
    listed $126,900
33. 2006-06-08
    listed $126,900
34. 2004-12-27
    soldstatus $82,500
35. 2004-12-27
    soldstatus $82,500
36. 2004-09-01
    listed $89,900
37. 2004-09-01
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,982
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$4,145
• Taxable loss: −$883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durand Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2612330
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 23.67/100
• National rank: #7838
• State rank: #395 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lennon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #15198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lennon, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,760

Population outlook (Shiawassee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,238 people
• By 2030: 61,434 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 55,054 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 35,995 · -44.0%
• By 2100: 26,678 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shiawassee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.7% · R 60.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.59%
• Current HPI: 367.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+58.5% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $142,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $142,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-09 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-09 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-20 Listed $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-10-20 Listed $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-06-03 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-03 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-12-08 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-09-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-09-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-09-25 Listed $39,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-25 Listed $39,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-03-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-08 Listed $126,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-08 Listed $126,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-12-27 Sold (MLS) $82,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-27 Sold (MLS) $82,500 REALCOMP
• 2004-09-01 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-01 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.