7429 Saint Lukes Rd

Land O' Lakes, FL 34638

$165,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $941/mo
• Annual: $11,286/yr
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.43%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $165k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.