7429 Saint Lukes Rd · Land O' Lakes, FL 34638

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 0.27 ac lot Est $155k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this great fixer-upper opportunity! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home situated on over a quarter acre of land, offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and privacy. This property features an inviting living area, a functional updated kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a split-bedroom floor plan designed for everyday living. Step outside and enjoy the oversized yard with endless possibilities -- perfect for entertaining, gardening, pets, RV/boat parking and hookup, or simply relaxing and enjoying the extra outdoor space. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize, or searching for an investment opportunity, this property offers affordability without sacrif

Key facts

• Oversized yard
• Rv boat parking
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED YARD
• RV BOAT PARKING
• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: fixer; Current use: manufactured home

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private water; Cable available; Water available; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single wide; One story; Attached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot features: other; 0.27-acre lot; Zoned R1-MH (Residential single-family housing)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Single-wide mobile home layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $165k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.43%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,232
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7619 Del Prado Ct	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	6mo	$155,000	$168	81
7420 Moffitt Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	12mo	$140,000	$167	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $25,725
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $70,777
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	2d	20	1.19mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2014-02-26
   soldstatus $39,500
4. 2013-08-09
   historical
5. 2013-06-24
   listed $43,950
6. 2013-05-06
   historical
7. 2012-05-10
   listed $35,000
8. 2012-01-06
   soldstatus $18,575
9. 2011-06-09
   listed $27,300
10. 2004-08-04
    soldstatus $55,000
11. 1999-08-24
    soldstatus $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,434
• − Management: −$2,434
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $9,149
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $9,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Land O' Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+259.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-05-16 Listed $165,000 HCAR
• 2014-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records
• 2013-08-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-24 Listed $43,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-10 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-06 Sold (MLS) $18,575 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-09 Listed $27,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,545 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.