2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
860 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Manufactured
· Active
· 273 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,600/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$471
Tax + insurance
−$576
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$336
Net cashflow
$216/mo
Annual
$2,595/yr
Cap rate
14.87%
Cash-on-cash
30.64%
DSCR
2.36
1% rule
1.78%
Cash to close
$25,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
Visalia Unified (urban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 552 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29