200 State Rt 94 #249

Vernon, NJ 07462-3323

$194,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 691 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$735
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-261/mo
• Annual: $-3,137/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (19.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.